Main Card Fight Night Thompson vs Neal

Main Event- Stephen Thompson vs Geoff Neal at Welterweight
Co-Main Event- Jose Aldo vs Marlon Vera at Bantamweight
Michel Pereira Lima vs Khaos Williams at Welterweight
Marlon Moraes vs Rob Font at Bantamweight
Marcin Tybura vs Greg Hardy at Heavyweight

UFC Fight Night Thompson vs Neal 

Prelims Thompson vs Neal

Anthony Pettis vs Alex Morono at Welterweight
Sijara Eubanks vs Pannie Kianzad at Bantamweight
Deron Winn vs Antonio Arroyo at Catchweight
Gillian Robertson vs Taila Santos at Flyweight
Tafon Nchukwi vs Jamie Pickett at Middleweight
Jimmy Flick vs Cody Durden at Flyweight
Christos Giagos vs Carlton Minus at Lightweight

 

UFC Fight Night Thompson vs Neal Odds

Thompson odds	+100
Neal odds	-121 [
Over/Under	4.5 (+120/-162)
Venue	UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Time	Approx. 9 p.m. ET
Channel	ESPN+

 

Thompson vs. Neal Betting Pick

Like the Eubanks-Kianzad fight on the undercard, I see value in the main event from three different betting perspectives 1) .

underdog money line; 2) underdog decision prop; 3) fight goes the distance.

All three results are fairly correlated, however – I have Neal finishing Thompson inside the distance 80% of the time if he does win, for example.

so I’m not going to place all three wagers. UFC Fight Night Thompson vs Neal 

But I do like the Thompson side of this fight, and I’m happy to play his money line (projected 57%) to -110 at a 4.5% edge.

However, I prefer his decision prop (projected +170, or 37%) at a much more significant edge relative to listed odds around +300.

(implied 25%) or better; and I would play that prop to +200.

UFC Fight Night Thompson vs  

Neal is the younger, faster, and more powerful man, but stamina has been an issue for him in the past, and this is his first attempt going five rounds.

Thompson has gone all 25 minutes on four occasions – which is notable because he hasn’t finished an opponent since 2016.

In a smaller cage at APEX, Thompson will have less room to maneuver outside of the octagon, and Neal should find it a bit easier to track him down and throw power shots.

But Wonderboy has proven excellent at avoiding pressure in the past .

the primary concern is whether he has slowed down or taken a hit in terms of durability at age 37.

UFC Fight Night Thompson vs  

Despite the historical striking numbers (+2.1 landed per minute for Neal, +2.47 to +1.2 strike differential), Thompson is more likely to win minutes in this fight.

He was able to pick apart the highly aggressive Vicente Luque (138-77 on significant strikes).

last November and will need to adjust to increased power from Neal in this spot. Still,

I felt that the opening line (Thompson -115) was more representative of this matchup’s true odds.