It’s kind of jarring to think of how different the UFC flyweight division was at the beginning of 2023 compared to the beginning of 2024. In less than a year, Brandon Moreno coughed up the flyweight crown and took a leave of absence, not long after Deiveson Figueiredo left the division altogether to try his luck at bantamweight. That happened just a few weeks after Top 5 contender Askar Askarov asked for (and was granted) his release from the promotion. While all of this was taking place, Steve Erceg was fighting Soichiro Hirai at Eternal MMA in Western Australia. Now he’s ranked No. 10 in the world and competing for a UFC title against Alexandre Pantoja.

In its current form, you can argue that Pantoja is close to cleaning out the flyweight division. In addition to toppling Moreno for the 125-pound strap, “The Cannibal” has already disposed of Manel Kape, Alex Perez, and Brandon Royval. He did lose to Figueiredo and Askarov; but hey, they are no longer UFC flyweights so it doesn’t matter. Amir Albazi and Muhammad Mokaev are lurking in the shadows and will no doubt have their eyes on the UFC 301 headliner this weekend in Rio.

UFC Flyweight Champion Alexandre “The Cannibal” Pantoja (27-5) vs. Steve “Astro Boy” Erceg (12-1)

It’s hard to pick against Pantoja considering what he’s done thus far in the division. “The Cannibal” is a proven commodity against some of the biggest names at 125 pounds and just as importantly, has established his durability when the fists start flying. He hasn’t been perfect, at least in terms of wins and losses, but that’s what happens when you consistently fight the best of the best — something Erceg has yet to do in the 15 months he’s been competing inside the Octagon. You can argue that “Astro Boy” already has two wins over ranked opponents — Matt Schnell and David Dvorak — but neither fighter has a winning record in UFC 301 and are only ranked because the promotion had to scrounge up 15 names to fill up the flyweight chart (furthering my argument that we should limit the rankings to 10).

UFC 301 Erceg is talented, his fights have proven that, and he’s a well-rounded combatant who can present problems for a smaller opponent like Pantoja. That said, I haven’t seen enough from the Aussie to believe he can handle the more experienced champion. Especially one like “The Cannibal,” who thrives in all-out wars. Barring a silly mistake that gets him guillotined, expect Pantoja to overwhelm “Astro Boy” and close the show early.

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